Kabambe shouldn’t be distracted from his own strategy on Malawi’s economic woes by joining Namiwa’s demonstration on fuel crisis

* We expect DK to offer tangible solutions as to what he has in store for the nation to solve the milliard economic challenges the country is facing

* Ranging from what the Church of Central Africa Presbyterian (CCAP)—Blantyre Synod highlights in its Pastoral Letter

* Such as hunger, forex & fuel scarcity, lack of medicine in public hospitals, rampant corruption, political violence, among others

Opinion by Duncan Mlanjira

Executive director for Centre for Democracy & Economic Initiative (CDEDI) is enticing newly-elected UTM president, Dalitso Kabambe to join him in the demonstration — as what he describes as a sign of solidarity — against the continued fuel shortage in the country.

Kabambe shouldn’t accept this challenge, which Namiwa has also extended to former Presidents Joyce Banda and Peter Mutharika, Kondwani Nankhumwa, Atupele Muluzi, and AFORD president Enoch Chihana.

He just wants to ride of the back of these people — especially on Kabambe, who has won the attention of the observer-public after the resounding landslide victory of his UTM party presidency.

While Kabambe may agree that the continued fuel shortage in the country has triggered many shocks, including increase in prices of goods and services, paralysing the health sector and other critical departments that depend on fuel to run, he should be left alone to devise his own strategy.

Namiwa is off target by organising a whole demonstration simply to ask for the resignation of Minister of Energy, Ibrahim Matola and Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) CEO, Henry Kachaje, accusing them of still being in office watching Malawians suffering.

Namiwa also bashes leader of opposition, George Chaponda for “standing idle while Malawians are going through hell” describing his silence as “questionable”.

We urge Dalitso Kabambe (DK) not to join this charade. In Malawi, street demonstrations usually go awry and if he would be involved when the protest march shall turn nasty, DK’s current sympathy he has hugely gained would most probably be taken away and used against him.

We expect DK to offer tangible solutions as to what he has in store for the nation to solve the milliard economic challenges the country is facing — ranging from what the Church of Central Africa Presbyterian (CCAP)—Blantyre Synod highlights in its Pastoral Letter; such as hunger, forex & fuel scarcity, lack of medicine in public hospitals, rampant corruption, political violence, among others.

Joining the street demonstration to demand resignation of Minister Matola and CEO Kachaje is, to our opinion, too low for DK — he should rise above it and let those at such a level participate in it.

As a recap, it shouldn’t be forgotten that in July 2022, Namiwa was discovered to have staged his own abduction and was later found in a bush at Nathenje in Lilongwe by a young man there.

When he was found, reports on social and main stream media quoted CDEDI spokesperson then, Edwin Mauluka declining to shed more information, saying the organisation was working with the police on the matter — but up to now, that case is still to be explained.

Soon after he was sworn in as a member of the Commission of Inquiry, Namiwa resigned citing that his suggestion to stream live the investigations was rejected but the public faulted his actions.

DK should do good by staying away from such emotional characters. We all know where the problems of fuel scarcity are coming from and that’s due to forex scarcity.

The authorities to solve the forex scarcity lies with the treasury. Kachaje’s role is to do with regulations of petroleum products and not its procurement and supply.

The suppliers are National Oil Company of Malawi (NOCMA), a government company, and the private sector through the Petroleum Importers Limited (PIL).

Kachaje and the Minister of Energy are regulators but they come in to assist wherever possible, as middlemen, to see how suppliers can be facilitated with the forex for the importers to supply fuel.

Because of forex scarcity, the fuel importers are failing to buy and supply fuel. The problem lies in who is failing to provide the forex and that’s probably the target for demonstrating against — the root cause.

You can force Kachaje or Matola out, but would the fuel suddenly be readily available when the forex shortage still persists? DK should stay away from shallow ideas like this made out of emotion by a man who staged his own abduction to gain sympathy.

For the benefit of Namiwa’s and his followers, here is where the real problem is, as unpacked by Chifipa Mhango, Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) national director for economic affairs, who is chief economist for South Africa-based Consultancy Group (DCG).

Mhango, a revered economist across Africa and beyond, issued a statement last week on the real causes of the economic mess that country is facing, saying the Malawi Congress Party (MCP)-led Government’s rocketing fiscal expenditure patterns is a major concern for the Malawi economy, as less is being diverted towards development-oriented objectives.

Copied to Ministers of Finance & Economic Affairs and Information & Digitisation, Mhango quoted latest data gathered through the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) that indicate that the MCP-led administration has already spent MK4.1 trillion in the first nine months of 2024 to September 2024, surpassing the year 2023 by MK732.7 billion, of which only 24.7% is towards development projects.

He indicated that this “paints a further disturbing picture of the inability to effectively manage the fiscal position of the country as well as more appetite towards borrowing”.

“At a spending of MK4.1 trillion, in the first nine months of year 2024, almost 75.3% — a percentage even higher than the first eight months by 0.2% — has been through administrative expenditure (travel, salaries, allowances etc); totalling MK3.1 trillion, an amount which is equal to the total fiscal expenditure of the whole 2023 calendar year.

“This is not a good reflection of a Government that is serious towards austerity measures at all,” observed the AFORD national director of economic affairs, while warning that the government debt is at over 81% share of the country’s GDP, and at the rate that debt is being accumulated by, projections point closer to 90% share debt of GDP by September 2025, “if this situation is not managed”.

He further unpacked what is data from the RBM itself that the MCP-led government’s budget deficit in these first nine months of 2024 has increasingly surpassed the total of 2023, reaching MK918.8 billion, saying:

“No Government can continue to spend what is has not earned through tax revenue system in a reckless manner, as it reflects, that even the purpose of its debt is for consumption, in an environment where the domestic economy has only grown by 2.1% on average in the last four years, thus restricting the revenue base growth.

“It is very concerning that it is the poor Malawian masses that are bearing the burden of a mismanagement of the economy, which has seen the cost of living escalating to levels not seen before, as inflation rate seems to be heading to levels of above 35%, with Malawi ranked third highest in Africa currently, after South Sudan (107% and Zimbabwe (57.5%).”

Mhango continues to hold the view that “Malawi is an import consuming economy as reflected in the international trade dynamics, with the RBM latest data reporting a worsening trade deficit position (ie importing more in value terms than the country exports) of MK338 billion in September 2024 from the MK228 billion recorded in August 2024.

“This further supports the view that devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha has never supported to transform the Malawi’s economy international trade position but rather to influence foreign currency demand, considering that the current September 2024 international trade deficit is worse since September 2023, when it was MK203 billion.

“This poor economic state of Malawi international trade has thus limited the potential growth of the country’s total foreign exchange reserves, thus struggling to even reach levels above MK1 trillion on average monthly, in the first nine months of 2024, as data reported by RBM indicate.

“The country’s total foreign exchange reserve position as of September 2024 is MK980.8 billion, thus a slight improvement of MK39.4 billion attributed to private sector accumulation. This is unsustainable for the Malawi economy to absorb external shocks caused by global economic and geo-political factors.

“The country’s import cover position remains unchanged from the August 2024 to the latest data month of September 2024, at 0.5 month or 15 days, thus limiting the country from sustaining the monthly importation of two of its top import products such as fuel and fertilizer.”

These are the issues Namiwa should be discussing and protesting for rather than organising street demonstration demanding the resignation of Kachaje or Matola, whose hands are tied in as far as forex scarcity is concerned.

DK — along with Joyce Banda, Peter Mutharika, Kondwani Nankhumwa, Atupele Muluzi, and Enoch Chihana — would best be advised to stay away from the planned demos if they are to protect their campaigns towards the 2025 general elections.

Namiwa would best implore on the electorate to register enmasse to vote for the candidate who will deliver the tangible manifesto to lift the country’s economy to where it should be — without having scarcity of forex, fuel and many other challenges the country is facing.