Predicted La Niña weather phenomenon likely to affect the country’s tourism economy due to rising water levels of Lake Malawi

* La Niña weather conditions have been predicted by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services for the forthcoming rainy season

* These cooler than usual temperatures disrupt global weather patterns because they cause it to become warmer

* In southern Africa, humidity levels are expected to rise as this tropical country gets cooler during such periods

By Leonard Masauli & Tione Andsen, MANA

Stakeholders have warned that the predicted La Niña could wreak further havoc on the country’s tourism economy due to rising water levels of Lake Malawi.

This warning was issued during a research dissemination dialogue on the economic Impact of Lake Malawi’s rising water levels at Sunbird Capital Hotel in Lilongwe on Monday, whose report highlights that as per the La Niña projection, the lake has increased its water level by 45 centimetres and this was a very significant threat to the tourism economy in the country.

La Niña weather conditions have been predicted by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services for the forthcoming rainy season and these cooler than usual temperatures disrupt global weather patterns because they cause it to become warmer.

In southern Africa, humidity levels are expected to rise as this tropical country gets cooler during such periods.

Executive Director of Malawi Tourism Council, Memory Kamthunzi expressed her worry, saying  considering how high waters have been pushed was like sitting on a time bomb especially with the La Niña prediction next year, making the tourism along the lakeshore at risk.

“When the incident occurred, the Council conducted assessments in all regions, and it was evident that the impact on lakeshore businesses was substantial,” Kamthunzi said.

“After working with the National Planning Commission, we confirmed the severity of the situation. When we review our database, the rising water levels in Lake Malawi have significantly affected operators.

“Some businesses are no longer operational, having closed due to property damage, leading to significant job losses.”

Kamthunzi recommended that financial institutions should be lobbied to provide loans to lakeshore operators, enabling them to rebuild and resume tourism businesses.

National Planning Commission Research Manager, Andrew Jamali highlighted that tourism contributes approximately 6.7% to the country’s Growth Domestic Product (GDP) and he warned that the damage to businesses is likely to affect the 2024 GDP.

“Our primary objective with these findings was to assess the impact of rising water levels on the tourism sector and estimate the potential GDP loss,” he said. “Tourism patronage along the lakeshore has dropped, affecting revenue.

“We estimate that the tourism GDP will contract by 0.5% by the end of the year, as many establishments have not resumed full operations, and some are operating at just 45% capacity.”

Jamali further said the 0.5% contraction in tourism would have an overall effect on the national GDP, reducing it by an estimated 0.01%.

“At the stakeholders meeting, we are discussing the best ways to address construction along the lakeshore and how water levels in the lake, particularly through the Shire River tributary, can be managed in anticipation of more rain in the forthcoming season,” he said.

On its website, preliminary findings on rising Lake Malawi water levels, NPC reported an estimated damages of K6.3 billion and revenue losses of K2.5 billion, which have been accrued by hotel and lodge operators along the lake following the water overflows.

Jamali is quoted as saying there is need for urgent interventions to prevent such damage to the tourism sector in future: “This is an opportunity for us to come together and find solutions.

“We need to establish a water management system, implement interventions to protect economic activities, and enforce laws to ensure sustainable development,” he said.

While Director of Knowledge & Learning, Joseph Nagoli added that NPC conducted the study because of the importance of tourism to the realisation of the MW2063 First 10-Year Implementation Plan (MIP-1).

The study was conducted in collaboration with the Malawi Tourism Council, the Department of Economic Planning and Development in the Ministry of Finance, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs and the National Statistical Office.

Meanwhile, The Department of Climate Change & Meteorological Services (DCCMS) reports that it has started working on the 2024/2025 seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast with support from Malawi Red Cross Society and Trócaire Malawi.

A report from the Department quotes Chief Meteorologist, Keenness Mang’anda as saying they will work tirelessly to complete the production of the seasonal forecast product, and make it available to the public likely by the second week of September.

“At the beginning of the previous season, the Department predicted erratic rains accompanied by prolonged dry spells due to El Niño, which materialised,” says the report.

“However, there is high chance of experiencing La Niña condition during the upcoming season, which may lead to normal to above-normal rains in some parts of the country, especially over the southern half of Malawi.”

Mang’anda is further quoted as saying this information “is too general to be acted upon such that more details will be explained in the detailed seasonal forecast, which will act as a guide for the nation”.

“The seasonal forecast will encompass the likelihood of dry spells, the length of the season, and the probable onset and cessation of rains, among other seasonal characteristics.”

Yobu Kachiwanda, chief meteorologist responsible for public weather services is quoted as saying the seasonal forecast will be disseminated in September, immediately after it has been generated — to ensure timely communication of weather predictions to the public and relevant stakeholders.

Each year, before the rains commence, the Department does an excellent job of generating rainfall forecasts with the aim of preparing the nation thereby saving people’s lives and property, hence contributing towards economic development.

The seasonal forecast is utilised by different sectors for planning, including agriculture, energy, disaster management, health, among many others.—Additional reporting by Duncan Mlanjira, Maravi Express