* Developing AI has potential as a game-changer for weather forecasts and early warnings—World Meteorological Organisation Secretary General, Celeste Saulo
* Especially if we can leverage AI technology to help countries without sophisticated super-computers to leap-frog to the latest most advanced prediction systems
* The project combines Norway’s AI expertise with Malawi’s local knowledge and data — building on a high-resolution data-driven weather forecasting model named BRIS
By Duncan Mlanjira
A new pilot project by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is being considered in Malawi, which seeks to assess whether an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Weather Prediction (AI-WP) system can improve the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of forests in Malawi and other least developed countries.
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This has been announced by WMO Secretary General, Celeste Saulo, stressing that AI “has potential as a game-changer for weather forecasts and early warnings — especially if we can leverage AI technology to help countries without sophisticated super-computers to leap-frog to the latest most advanced prediction systems.
She unveils that the project combines Norway’s AI expertise with Malawi’s local knowledge and data — building on a high-resolution data-driven weather forecasting model named BRIS.
BRIS has been developed by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the ‘forecast-in-a-box’ concept pioneered by research partners at European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
“I am hugely grateful to the Climate Risk & Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for funding and to all the partners and collaborators in this innovative project.”
WMO Secretary General, Celeste Saulo
A statement from WMO issued on Monday, June 30, indicates that in collaboration with the meteorological services of Norway and Malawi, the UN agency is supporting the use of cutting-edge AI solutions and tools like forecasts-in-a-box as a pilot to test their potential to improve early warnings in countries with limited resources.
“Use of AI in meteorological modelling has recently demonstrated the ability to produce state-of-the-art predictions with relatively small computational power,” says the statement.
It adds that the WMO’s Executive Council recently set up a new Joint Advisory Council on Artificial Intelligence “to inform WMO activities and to balance opportunities and challenges”.
“WMO is therefore excited about a new pilot project in Malawi, with funding from the CREWS initiative. It will test the ground in leveraging a state-of-the-art AI-WP system to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of weather predictions in Malawi.
“It aims to empower Malawi’s Department of Climate Change & Meteorological Services (DCCMS) to build operational capacity in AI-WP and early warning provision, and to evaluate how an AI-WP system can help in closing critical capacity gaps in Malawi and more generally in Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.”
The WMO maintains that through this pilot project, “meteorologists in Malawi will gain hands-on experience running AI-enabled forecasts locally, assessing their operational feasibility, forecast skill, and potential to support timely early warnings for high-impact weather events”.
“Malawi – like many African least developed countries — is highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Its early warning systems face significant gaps due to limited observational infrastructure, constrained human resources, and outdated forecasting systems.”
DCCMS Director, Dr. Lucy Mtilatila — who is WMO’s permanent representative in Malawi — is quoted as saying: “We firmly believe this initiative represents a strategic opportunity to strengthen Malawi’s early warning infrastructure, deliver actionable insights, and support long-term capacity development for our forecasting staff.”
DCCMS Director, Dr. Lucy Mtilatila
WMO reports that the project was presented by Roar Skålin, permanent representative of Norway to WMO at the High-Level Open Consultative Platform on AI during the week of the WMO Executive Council.
Forecast-in-a-Box
It is being launched in collaboration with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasing (ECMWF) which is developing early prototypes of Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS) packaged as a Forecast-in-a-Box as part of the AI-driven solutions of the Digital Twin Engine and the Destination Earth initiative of the European Commission.
Data-driven models such as ECMWF’s AIFS and MET Norway’s Bris are fundamentally different from traditional numerical weather prediction systems. They are lighter, faster, and more portable, making them well suited to run outside large high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructures.
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This set-up enables to run forecasts closer to where the data is needed, offering key benefits:
* Users can tailor the forecasting pipeline to their specific needs;
* Improved responsiveness and timeliness;
* Deployment across a range of environments; and
* No deep expertise in system setup or infrastructure is needed.
WMO adds that “despite the huge possibilities, there are question marks about the capability of AI to support forecasts and warnings of local high-impact weather and water hazards”.
The WMO Executive Council therefore requested the development of technical guidelines on the use of AI-based technologies and how incorporate AI into the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS).
“This is the worldwide network of operational centres of WMO’s Members and is the backbone of all forecasting. The planned Joint Advisory Group will be a coordination mechanism among WMO’s Infrastructure and Services Commissions, Research Board and other relevant WMO bodies.
“It will include experts from the public, private and academic sectors and will steer joint efforts to explore the opportunities and challenges of AI/ML technology.”
In aligning with the theme for the commemoration of World Meteorological Day 2025; ‘Closing the Early Warning Gap Together’, DCCMS launched a quarterly publication named The Zanyengo e-Newsletter — which marked a significant step forward in DCCMS’ “commitment to keeping the public, stakeholders and partners informed about our ongoing efforts in climate and weather services across Malawi”.
This was by Director Mtilatila in The Zanyengo e-Newsletter’s inaugural preface of of March 2025 edition, adding that through the platform, DCCMS aims “to share insights, updates, and highlights from the department, fostering a deeper understanding of the pivotal role in national development and resilience-building”.
“This newsletter is one of the ways we aim to bridge the information gap — bringing you closer to the work we do, the progress we make, and the challenges we face,” she had said. “By sharing regular updates, we hope to increase awareness, build trust and strengthen collaboration with all our stakeholders, including policymakers, development partners, researchers, the media, and the general public.”
The 2nd edition of Zanyengo e-Newsletter has already been published; https://www.metmalawi.gov.mw/publications/the-zanyengo-e-newsletter-2nd-edition/.
