* Pope Francis sought to lower age profile and broaden spread of college of cardinals and for most it is their first conclave
* In 2013, more than half of cardinal electors were European. Now, the proportion has dropped to 39% while 18% come from Asia, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12% from sub-Saharan Africa
* The bookmakers’ favourites to succeed Francis are Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s chief diplomat, and Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino cardinal
By Harriet Sherwood, The Guardian
Conservative and progressives will intensify efforts to shape the future of the Roman Catholic Church in the coming days as 135 cardinals prepare to be sequestered in the Sistine Chapel in order to choose a successor to Pope Francis.
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The group of cardinals who will vote for the next leader of about 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide are less predictable than ever before, with the vast majority having no experience of a papal conclave — a much wider geographic spread of cardinals adds to the uncertainty.
Eight in 10 of those eligible to vote in the conclave were appointed by Pope Francis in the past 12 years with 20 made cardinals only in December last year. Many had never met each other before heading to Rome over the past week after the Pope’s death last Monday.
The papal conclave is expected to begin formal deliberations next week — but discreet ad hoc discussions and lobbying in the Vatican’s corridors, dining rooms and magnificent gardens have gathered pace over recent days.
“In fact, conversations have probably been going on for some time, certainly since the start of this year, because the trajectory of Pope Francis’s health has been clear,” said Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic church at Oxford University.
More than 20 cardinals have been identified as papabile – candidates for the papacy – by Vatican observers. However, few frontrunners at the start of the process make it through successive rounds of voting.
In 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was not considered a papabile, but by the end of the conclave he was Pope Francis.
Some cardinals who are not thought to be in the running for the job are likely to be pushing their favoured candidates, especially among less experienced colleagues.
Among those likely to be lobbying for a conservative successor to Francis are Raymond Burke, a Donald Trump-supporting US bishop, and Gerhard Müller, a German who warned last week that the church could split if an orthodox pope is not elected.
The progressive camp includes Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, Timothy Radcliffe from the UK and Michael Czerny from Canada. Critics accused Francis of packing the college of cardinals with his supporters in making more than 100 appointments during his papacy.
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But Pattenden said: “Historically, no pope has been able to control the election of his successor. There were clear conservatives and progressives among the cardinals, but it’s a spectrum.
“There are some who hold conservative views on certain issues but liberal views on other issues – for example, sexuality and climate change: “Francis was more inclined to promote his ideological confreres, but he didn’t exclusively appoint those who appeared to agree with him.
“He had other priorities — to make the college of cardinals as inclusive as possible, which meant choosing men from very small Catholic communities like Iran and Algeria and Mongolia and balancing it away from its rich European and North American heartlands.”
In 2013, more than half of cardinal electors were European. Now, the proportion has dropped to 39% while 18% come from Asia, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12% from sub-Saharan Africa.
Francis also sought to lower the age profile of the college of cardinals. Seven of those appointed last December were under the age of 60, with one – Mykola Bychok, a Ukrainian-born bishop in Melbourne — only 44.
Cardinals were appointed from Peru, Ecuador, Algeria and Iran in an attempt to tilt the balance away from Europe. The first vote will be taken soon after the conclave convenes, and then each morning and afternoon until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority.
The cardinals will be “under quite a lot of pressure to choose quite quickly,” Pattenden said. “The world’s eyes are on them, and the Catholic faithful might find it a bit disconcerting if they’re still in the conclave in June or in July.”
In the past century, most conclaves have lasted two to three days. The longest conclave, in the 13th century, lasted two years and nine months, and the shortest was in 1503 when a result came within hours.
The bookmakers’ favourites to succeed Francis are Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s chief diplomat, and Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino cardinal.
Speculation on the outcome of the conclave has already become one of the most popular betting markets this year. Leighton Vaughan Williams, a professor of economics and finance at Nottingham Business School, told AFP: “What was once a pursuit confined largely to Renaissance Roman bankers and courtiers has evolved into a multimillion-dollar global market accessible at the click of a button or a tap on a crypto wallet.”
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He said the speed with which betting activity had taken off this year “underscores an enduring cultural fascination with the papacy, amplified by media coverage and popular culture”.
Predicting the outcome of the highly secretive papal conclave is near impossible as cardinals’ positions shift over successive votes and some try to game the system to influence the chances of their favoured – or least-favoured – candidates.
In the last conclave in 2013, few predicted that Jorge Mario Bergoglio would be elected as Pope Francis. At the moment, speculation is focusing on the following men to succeed him:
Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy
Seen as a moderate “continuity candidate”, Parolin was close to Francis. He has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, playing a key role in diplomatic affairs, including delicate negotiations with China and governments in the Middle East.
He is regarded as a reliable and trusted papal representative by secular diplomats. In 2018, he was the driving force behind a controversial agreement with the Chinese government on the appointment of bishops, criticised by some as a sellout to the communist regime.
Parolin’s critics see him as a modernist and a pragmatist who places ideology and diplomatic solutions above hard truths of the faith. To his supporters, he is a courageous idealist and avid proponent of peace.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, the Philippines
Tagle, a former archbishop of Manila, would be the first Asian pope, the region with the fastest-growing Catholic population.
At one time he was considered to be Francis’s preferred successor and a strong contender to continue the late pope’s progressive agenda, but recently appears to have fallen out of favour.
He has suggested that the Catholic church’s stance on gay and divorced couples is too harsh, but has opposed abortion rights in the Philippines.
Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana
Turkson would be the first black pope in centuries. He has been vocal on issues such as the climate crisis, poverty and economic justice while affirming the church’s traditional positions on the priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality.
However, his views on the latter have loosened and he has argued that laws in many African countries are too harsh. He has spoken out on corruption and human rights.
Péter Erdő, 72, Hungary
A leading conservative candidate, Erdő has been a strong advocate for traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He would represent a big shift away from Francis’s approach.
He is widely regarded as a great intellect and a man of culture. Erdő was a favourite of the late cardinal George Pell, who believed he would restore the rule of law in the post-Francis Vatican.
In 2015, Erdő appeared to align himself with Hungary’s nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, when he opposed Francis’s call for churches to take in migrants.
Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy
Appointed a cardinal by Francis in 2019, Zuppi is considered to be on the progressive wing of the church, and would be expected to continue Francis’s legacy, sharing the late pope’s concern for the poor and marginalised.
He is (relatively) liberal on same-sex relationships. Two years ago, Francis made him the Vatican peace envoy for Ukraine, in which capacity he visited Moscow to “encourage gestures of humanity”.
While there he met Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox church and Vladimir Putin’s ally. He has also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president.
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, Portugal
Tolentino is one of the youngest potential successors to Francis, which could count against him – ambitious cardinals may not want to wait another 20 or 30 years before another shot at the top job.
He has attracted controversy for sympathising with tolerant views on same-sex relationships and allying himself with a feminist Benedictine sister who favours women’s ordination and is pro-choice.
He was close to Francis on most issues, and argues that the church must engage with modern culture.
Mario Grech, 68, Malta
Grech was seen as a traditionalist but began to embrace more progressive views after Francis was elected in 2013. His supporters argue that his changing opinions show his capacity for growth and change. He has criticised European political leaders who sought to limit the activities of NGO ships and has expressed support for female deacons.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, Italy
Since 2020, Pizzaballa has been the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, a crucial role in advocating for the Christian minority in the Holy Land. After Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Pizzaballa offered himself as a hostage in exchange for children who were being held by Hamas in Gaza.
He visited Gaza in May 2024 after months of negotiations. He would be expected to continue some aspects of Francis’s leadership of the church, but has made few public statements on controversial issues.
Robert Sarah, 79, Guinea
Sarah is a traditional, Orthodox cardinal who at one time sought to present himself as a “parallel authority to Francis, according to a Vatican observer.
In 2020, he co-authored a book with the then retired Pope Benedict defending clerical celibacy that was seen as a challenge to Francis’s authority. He has denounced “gender ideology” as a threat to society, and has spoken out against Islamic fundamentalism.
Like Turkson, he could make history as the first black pope in centuries.
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