Is Tanzania just trying to apply pressure for Malawi to capitulate to its demands to reverse agricultural trade importation ban?

* As its agriculture minister Bashe says fresh diplomatic talks were ongoing after has already effected it trade importation ban on Malawi and South Africa

* We are taking this step to protect our business interests. This is business — in business, we must all respect each other

Analysis by Duncan Mlanjira

It seems Tanzania is applying pressure on Malawi to capitulate to its demands to reverse agricultural trade importation ban as its agriculture minister Hussein Bashe is quoted by BBC News saying fresh diplomatic talks were ongoing, especially with its immediate neighbour.

While Malawi seems to bear a huge blunt on this international trade war, Tanzania is taking the measures just so that she can continue to enjoy immense benefits she gets through that country’s agricultural exports.

According to data collated by the Observatory of Economic Complexity; https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/mwi/partner/tza, as of 2023, Tanzania exported US$215 million to Malawi — the main products being refined petroleum (US$156 million), cleaning products (US$12.2 million), and salt (US$5.03 million).

“Over the past 5 years, exports from Tanzania to Malawi have increased at an annualised rate of 25.1% — growing from US$70.4 million in 2018 to US$215 million in 2023.

While Malawi’s exports to Tanzania in the same period were worth US$38.2 million — with main products being soybean meal (US$9.79), soybeans (US$5.16 million) and dried legumes (US$4.95 million).

“Over the past 5 years, exports from Malawi to Tanzania have increased at an annualised rate of 9.32%, growing from US$24.5 m in 2018 to US$38.2 million in 2023.

“In 2023, Malawi ranked false in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI false), and 163 in total exports (US$922 million). That same year, Tanzania ranked 116 in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI -1.13), and 99 in total exports (US$11.3 billion) — reports the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Despite Tanzanian experts giving their government, as reported in their media outlets — who urged caution ahead of the standoff warning of potential economic repercussions — they have gone ahead with the threat.

“We are taking this step to protect our business interests,” agriculture minister Bashe is quoted by the BBC News. “This is business — in business, we must all respect each other.”

Bashe further said diplomatic efforts to resolve the trade issues have so far failed but “fresh talks were ongoing.

Meanwhile, Malawi government assures the public that it is committed to resolve the trade standoff through dialogue and diplomacy while downplaying fears that the situation could disrupt bilateral relations or existing trade arrangements.

This was reported in The Daily Times yesterday quoting Information Minister Moses Kunkuyu that the government has always engaged with her neighbours on a number of bilateral relations, while not indicating whether Malawi would comply with Tanzania’s demands — emphasising on using proper channels for negotiations.

“Malawi has a [diplomatic] mission in Tanzania, and Tanzania has a mission here in Malawi,” he told The Daily Times. “Our representatives are in constant communication and we believe that, through continued dialogue, we can achieve a win-win outcome for both countries.”

The ban that was imposed last Minister of Trade Vitumbiko Mumba announced as gazzeted in Parliament month, blocks imports of flour, rice, ginger, bananas and maize — which the BBC News acknowledges that it was designed “as a temporary measure covering goods from all countries to protect local producers”.

“It is a strategic move to create an environment where local businesses can thrive without the immediate pressure of foreign competition,” Mumba said last month.

The report further says Bashe assured Tanzanians that the trade standoff would not threaten their food security, saying: “No Tanzanian will die from a lack of South African grapes or apples — we are taking these actions to protect Tanzanian interests.”

The report said the usually busy Kasumulu border post linking Tanzania and Malawi, remained quiet with only a handful of lorries transporting cargo such as fuel spotted on the Tanzanian side.

On a normal day, more than 15 lorries loaded with agricultural produce would cross the frontier between the two countries, drivers told the BBC.

On the Malawian side, many lorries that should be transporting bananas and tomatoes through Tanzania were parked and empty.

“[The drivers] are now trying to find alternative products to transport,” says the report. “It’s been very difficult for them because they are used to carrying agricultural goods, and now they can’t carry not just bananas and tomatoes, but even maize and potatoes.”

According to the BBC, the row “comes at a time when Africa is supposed to be moving towards greater free trade through the establishment of a continent-wide free-trade area, which began operating four years ago.

“Trade flows between Tanzania, Malawi and South Africa — all members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional political, security and economic body — were already being affected last week.

Firebrand Minister Bashe is reported to have posted a social media video showing a pile of rotten bananas in a truck stranded at the border with Malawi, saying “it was hard for Tanzania to tolerate the trend”.

“Tonnes of tomatoes also spoiled at the border recently after lorries from Tanzania were denied entry into Malawi. Malawi has become an increasingly important market for Tanzanian goods in recent years, with exports trebling between 2018 and 2023, according to official Tanzanian figures.

“But while Tanzania can seek alternative markets such as in Kenya, Namibia and South Sudan, Malawi may find it harder to get its goods out of the country.

“Much of its exports go through the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam, as well as essential imports such as fuel and machinery. Losing access to Dar es Salaam would likely force Malawi to move shipments through the Mozambican ports of Beira and Nacala — options that may be more expensive.”

This shows that Tanzania is exerting so much pressure on Malawi to capitulate to its demands to reverse agricultural trade importation ban, as rightly argued by Bashe when he told the BBC News that “the ban was not meant to provoke a trade war but to protect Tanzania’s interests”.

“Tanzania will not continue to allow unequal market access to persist at the expense of its people,” he is quoted as saying.

While South Africa that exports various fruits, including apples and grapes, to Tanzania will be hit, landlocked Malawi — which has relied on Tanzanian ports to carry its exports such as tobacco, sugar and soybeans to the rest of the world, will have to reroute its goods, observes the BBC.

Tanzania, through the Dar es Salaam Port, benefits a lot on Malawi’s international through importation of petroleum, motor vehicles and other essential goods not manufactured in Malawi — but with the blanket ban, the Port is bound to lose out through toll fees it gets from its neighbour it relies so much on.

In his analysis published by Tanzania Digest ahead of the effectiveness of the ban, Tanzanian development administration specialist, Rutashubanyuma Nestory, defended decisions by Malawi and South Africa restricting importation of agricultural produce, saying the two countries have genuine internal trade concerns which should not be swept under the carpet by the Tanzanian government.

Nestory —  who is reported to have over 30 years of practical experience, and has been writing media economic developmental analyses in print and digital newspapers — said this in his article published yesterday by ahead of the deadline while offering solutions that include using SADC to settle the trade war.

He said: “SADC is there to fix these trade thistles — sadly, all members of SADC seldom use it as they should. SADC shouldn’t be an opportunity for our telegenic politicians and bureaucrats to showcase their latest design suits but to engage in interactive dialogue, and solve real problems like these.

“The Tanzanian posturing, albeit not a cabinet resolution, defeats why SADC is there in first place — just lodge your trade grouses there, and I have no doubt they will be solved.

“Quietly and without much ado, the ‘ice picks’ will melt away! So be wise by stop making ‘Mountain Kilimanjaro’ out of an anthill!” he bluntly advised.