
Possible track of tropical cyclone Dikeledi (courtesy of La Reunion Regional Climate Centre)
* Expect cloudy conditions with a pick in rainfall activities over some areas in Malawi, which will be heavy at times
* Dikeledi remains in the Mozambique Channel, to the south east of Madagascar at a distance of about 910km from Malawi
By Duncan Mlanjira
The Department of Climate Change & Meteorological Services (DCCMS) reports that tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is now moving away from the coast of Mozambique but remains in the Mozambique Channel, to the south east of Madagascar at a distance of about 910km from Malawi.

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The Cyclone has re-intensified with its centre pressure now at 978hPa and is now moving south eastward at a speed of 28km/hr.
As it moves further away, Dikeledi is expected to indirectly enhance cloudy conditions with a pick in rainfall activities over some areas in Malawi, which will be heavy at times.
The next update will be issued tomorrow, January 16 and, meanwhile outlook for these 10 days (dekad) (January 11-20, normal to above normal conditions are expected mainly over northern and southern areas while normal to below normal conditions are expected mainly over central areas as shown in figure below — due to the indirect impacts of Cyclone Dikeledi.
10-day weather and agrometeorological bulletin
In its 10-day weather and agrometeorological bulletin, DCCMS reports that the first dekad of January 2025 had most areas experiencing thunderstorms and rains, which were heavy at times as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) influenced weather over the country.
In the same period, scattered rainfall activities were experienced over the country and the recorded rainfall amounts were generally within the normal to above normal range of historical dekadal amounts over majority of Shire highlands, northern and central areas of the country with normal to below normal over Shire Valley areas and the western sector of the southern areas.
Cumulatively, since the start of rainfall monitoring season from first dekad of October 2024, the country has experienced normal to below normal conditions with pockets of normal to above normal conditions noticeable over northern lakeshore areas.
The stations that recorded at least 150mm of rainfall during the first dekad of January 2025 are Dwangwa Sugar Company in Nkhotakota (306mm in 7 rainy days); Nkhotakota Meteorological Station (205.3mm in 8 rainy days); Lifuwu station in Salima (188.8mm in 8 rainy days); Chikangawa forest (164.9mm in 9 rainy days); and Vinthukutu Agriculture (162mm in 3 rainy days).

The spatial distribution of actual recorded rainfall values
The overall rainy days distribution during the period under review improved as shown in figure below where most stations had a range of 3 to 9.
Meteorological stations of Chikangawa forest, Chitipa, Mzimba and Mbawa Agricultural Research, registered the highest number of 9 rainy days while Nkhotakota Meteorological station, Lifuwu Agricultural Research station, Namwera Agriculture, Bolero Agricultural Research station, Chitedze Agricultural Research station, Mpilipili Agriculture and Nkhata Bay Agricultural Research station registered 8 rainy days.
Agrometeorological assessment
During the first dekad of January 2025, the main on-farm activities have been weeding and application of basal fertilizer for majority of areas across the country while some are planting and replanting as a result of erratic rainfall onset for the season.
The rainfall experienced during the dekad under review supported vegetative growth and development of maize as captured in figure below.

Improved maize field following the wet spell in Blantyre
The level of growth of maize is varied as the seasonal onset was erratic even in same Extension Planning Areas. Other cash crops such as tobacco are also reported to have recovered from the dry conditions experienced in the preceding reporting periods.
However, some areas continue to experience normal to below normal conditions resulting in water stress in some crops as captured in figure below. Moreover, the rainfall episodes experienced are quickly followed by extreme sunny days which are creating favorable conditions for pests like the Fall Army Worm (FAW) as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture in various parts of the country.

Water stressed crop in Mulanje under Blantyre ADD
Furthermore, the rainfall experienced during the period, necessitated rice growing farmers to transplant over northern and central lakeshore areas of the country as well as planting of tubers such as potatoes in majority of potato growing districts.
Livestock
Majority of livestock in the country were under Temperature Humidity Index ranges of mild heat stress as the country experienced generally warm and moist conditions. The rains also ensured continued pasture growth and water availability to various stock as captured in figure below

Improved pasture growth
For proper utilisation of rain water, farmers should adhere to principles of good agricultural practices including moisture conservation, timely control of weeds, pests and diseases; and fertilizer/ manure application. Water harvesting technologies should also be practiced for future use during periods of suppressed rainfall.
Prospect for 2024/2025 season
The 2024-2025 rainfall season is being influenced by weak La Niña conditions that have been established over eastern-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Global models project that these conditions are likely to persist for a considerable remaining part of the season.
The rainfall forecast for the sub-season (January-February-March of the 2024/2025 season is to expect normal to above-normal total rainfall amounts over most areas with possibility of outright above normal rainfall this January.
At national level, there are higher chances of normal to above normal cumulative seasonal rainfall amounts over most parts of the country. For the month of January 2025, above normal rainfall amounts are anticipated over majority of areas of the country with pockets of normal conditions.

Refer to this figure map 1
The actual anticipated rainfall amounts are generally in the range 200 to 350 mm as shown in map (2) of figure above.
In terms of temperature, generally cooler than normal conditions are anticipated during the month of January 2025 over most areas of the country as shown in map (1) in figure below.
Lakeshore and southern areas are expected to have temperatures of around 30 to 32 degrees Celsius while about 26 to 28 degrees Celsius elsewhere as captured in map (2) in figure above.

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